Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Baseball and Politics: Expansion

I desperately want a major league baseball team in Salt Lake.  I could see myself going to a few dozen games every season.  As a lifelong Red Sox fan I would have no problem switching allegiances to a new, local team (especially after the Sox have won a couple World Series recently).  The only way I see this happening is through expansion.

There are currently 30 major league teams.  There are 16 teams in the National League and 14 in the American League.  The reason they are unbalanced is because in baseball every team plays just about every day, and teams play in (typically) three game sets, so you need an even number of teams in each league to avoid scheduling problems.  This means that the NL Central has six teams while the AL West only has four.  It would be ideal to add a couple of western teams to even out the leagues and enfranchise some disenfranchised parts of the country (I think Portland would be perfect for a second team).

The common argument against expansion is dilution of talent.  You take the same number of major league players and spread them across two more teams, and it means you have to now have inferior players on major league rosters.  That's 50 players who weren't good enough to play in the majors yesterday now playing in the majors.  The response is the fact that there is a larger and larger talent pool from which to draw players, both from population increases in the US and the every increasing influx of talent from outside the US, which means the borderline players now were likely talented enough to be big leaguers in less diluted times.

The chart below shows how many Americans per team there have been since 1960, the last year of pre-expansion MLB:

Year    Tms   Popuation      Pop per Tm
1960    16    180,671,158    11,291,947
1961    18    183,691,481    10,205,082
1962    20    186,537,737    9,326,887
1963    20    189,241,798    9,462,090
1964    20    191,888,791    9,594,440
1965    20    194,302,963    9,715,148
1966    20    196,560,338    9,828,017
1967    20    198,712,056    9,935,603
1968    20    200,706,052    10,035,303
1969    24    202,676,946    8,444,873
1970    24    205,052,174    8,543,841
1971    24    207,660,677    8,652,528
1972    24    209,896,021    8,745,668
1973    24    211,908,788    8,829,533
1974    24    213,853,928    8,910,580
1975    24    215,973,199    8,998,883
1976    24    218,035,164    9,084,799
1977    26    220,239,425    8,470,747
1978    26    222,584,545    8,560,944
1979    26    225,055,487    8,655,980
1980    26    227,224,681    8,739,411
1981    26    229,465,714    8,825,604
1982    26    231,664,458    8,910,171
1983    26    233,791,994    8,992,000
1984    26    235,824,902    9,070,189
1985    26    237,923,795    9,150,915
1986    26    240,132,887    9,235,880
1987    26    242,288,918    9,318,805
1988    26    244,498,982    9,403,807
1989    26    246,819,230    9,493,047
1990    26    249,464,396    9,594,784
1991    26    252,153,092    9,698,196
1992    26    255,029,699    9,808,835
1993    28    257,782,608    9,206,522
1994    28    260,327,021    9,297,394
1995    28    262,803,276    9,385,831
1996    28    265,228,572    9,472,449
1997    28    267,783,607    9,563,700
1998    30    270,248,003    9,008,267
1999    30    272,690,813    9,089,694
2000    30    282,171,936    9,405,731
2001    30    285,039,803    9,501,327
2002    30    287,726,647    9,590,888
2003    30    290,210,914    9,673,697
2004    30    292,892,127    9,763,071
2005    30    295,560,549    9,852,018
2006    30    298,362,973    9,945,432
2007    30    301,290,332    10,043,011
2008    30    304,059,724    10,135,324
2009    30    307,006,550    10,233,552
2010    30    308,400,408    10,280,014

Every time the population per team gets around ten million, MLB has expanded.  As you can see, we live in a time now where there is a greater population per team since any time before expansion began in 1961.  It is time for expansion in MLB, and I think Salt Lake City is a fine potential spot for a team.  I won't go into the details, but I think the Salt Lake metropolitan area has a lot of positive attributes that could make it attractive to Major League Baseball.

Expansion brings the teams and league closer to Americans, balances power more evenly throughout the country, and improves the brand generally by making the game more accessible.  I would suggest naming the team the Utah Reds, but that nickname is already taken.  Maybe the Utah Smog?  I'm just brainstorming.

The United States House of Representatives could benefit from the idea of expansion, as well.  For reference, first, I'm taking my information from the Wiki page for the HofR and the Google fusion table for population.  In 1776 there were about 2.5 million Americans and 65 Representatives, for a ration of one Representative for every 38,462 citizens.  Below is a rundown of all the years the House has been expanded and the new ratio:

1776:  38,462
1791:  58,684
1793:  40,956
1803:  41,322
1813:  43,345
1815:  45,648
1817:  47,814
1819:  50,089
1821:  46,577
1833:  58,520
1835:  61,237
1843:  83,917
1845:  88,429
1847:  93,191
1851:  102,612
1853:  108,587
1857:  121,094
1861-1868 is the Civil War and Reconstruction, so it got all screwy and I'm not going to figure it out.  I think the numbers get normal again in 1869.
1869:  155,472
1873:  142,429
1883:  165,312
1889:  186,564
1891:  192,740
1893:  186,714
1901:  200,995
1911:  240,059
1913:  223,506
1959:  407,866
1961:  420,347
1963:  435,039

Today the population is about 310,232,863 and we still have only 435 seats, making 713,179 Americans for every Representative, or about 18.5 times the original ratio 1776.  This is a big problem.  Reducing the ratio would help in a few of ways, I think.

First, it would bring our representatives closer to us.  This would make each individual voice more important and more powerful.  It would allow us easier access to our representatives, and make them more accountable to us.  It would perhaps open up lines of communication between the electorate and the representatives that cannot exist with such a large ratio as we have today.

Second, I think it would affect campaign funding positively.  I recently heard on NPR, and I can't find a link to back this up so take it with a grain of salt, that something like 20% of all winning Representatives received less than 10% of their total campaign funding from their actual constituents.  And something like 75% received less than half from their constituents.  The rest of the money came from political action committees and corporations and labor unions and the like.  This is incredibly disconcerting to me.  Every single Representative has been bought by big interest groups.  If we expanded the House significantly that money would get watered down and the local constituent money might become more important.

Third, it could serve to weaken the political parties.  Because Representatives would be more concerned with their actual constituents they might be more likely to think independently and not just get sucked into the cogs of the machines.  They would have less fear of going against party leadership to serve their constituents because they would be closer to their constituents than to the party.  There would be more districts that were idiosyncratic in one way or another because of their smaller sizes, making it harder to fit in neatly with either party.  A dramatically larger House might even create enough room for a third party or regional parties that doesn't seem to exist now.

So, in the same way that expanding the MLB would strengthen its brand and increase its popularity with little to no effect on the overall quality of the product, so would expanding the House of Representatives be good for democracy.  There are plenty of good men and women who would make excellent political leaders if only the system were not so corrupt and distant from the People.  If we combined an expanded House with things like campaign finance reform and term limits, we might actually improve the government brand and make it function better.

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